The GG Spotlight – Variance of a Vegas Vacation
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Two weeks ago, I mentioned that I was heading to Vegas for a much needed vacation – my last vacation was January 2019 – away from any and all responsibilities and words. Do not misunderstand, as a father and husband, my family means the world to me and I would do anything for them but even I need a vacation on occasion, just a chance to recharge my batteries and refresh who I am.
My good friend, The Banker – I’m not using his real name to protect his…innocence? – and I were speaking last October when it was decided that we both needed some time away. Armed with the knowledge of our previous vacations, Las Vegas was the easy choice. Granted, the last time we were there was in the early 00’s. It was a 3-night bender which I can honestly say, other than losing a couple hundred, I do not have many stories from due to, well, Vegas.
So mid-October, it was decided that we were going to Vegas and the planning began. We started making a list of things to do while we were there that included, sitting by a pool (winter was cold in Toronto), making our way over to the Saw-themed escape room, we decided that under no circumstance were we going to get on a helicopter, and, of course, gamble.
Plans were set, the wheels in motion and all we had to do was book the vacation. November and December passed in a flash. January and February happened even faster. Finally, around mid-March we found a great deal (under $1k for flight from Toronto, rooms and resort fee for 3 nights) and BAM, we were booked a solid 10 days before take off, lots of time of everything.
The flight left Toronto at 8pm and landed in LV at 10pm (which would be 1am for my internal body clock), so, like any normal person would do, I was asleep before the plane was in the air and woke up as we were landing. We disembarked to be immediately greeted by the forced, over-powering air conditioning mixed with a mild heat which was a great combination with the general grogginess from not enough sleep and overall feeling of gross from being on a plane. We hopped in cab and made our way to the hotel. Completed check-in and headed to our rooms to freshen up. The conversation in the elevator went something like this:
The Wordsmith (me): So, whats the plan?
The Banker: Unpack and see how we feel?
The Wordsmith: Sure.
The Banker: Or…
The Wordsmith: I’ll meet you downstairs in 20.
Thus began the debauchery.
We met and, due to being a bit tired, decided to stay away from poker for the time being and headed right over to the Mississippi Stud Poker, a game I was not familiar with. He sat down and proceeded to quickly run his stack up. I played 1 hand, decided it was stupid and wandered off to the much better, high skill, big brain game of Let It Ride. That went as well as expected so off to Black Jack. Of course, during this time we were enjoying all of the benefits of playing in a casino leading to our intellectual acumen was on a serious decline. We called it a night a 5am, I was down and annoyed at myself for not going to bed. C’est la vie.
After a late breakfast, we headed to a poker room, The Banker sat down at a cash game and I registered for a tournament. At the end of late registration, I had run my stack to 4x the starting stack and was in a good position which is the perfect time for the evils of variance to attack. One thing that you should know, is I run bad. I believe I am a good (decent) player, but I know I suffer from bad variance. Now, everyone says they run bad on occasion, but I have never seen or played with anyone that runs bad like I do. AA should win about 85% of the time against any one hand. I win about 70% of the time. And thats not even the worst of it. The hand that causes me the most pain is KT and it doesn’t matter who is holding it – unless I am sitting in a blind and am not facing a raise, I always fold KT.
With just 10 left in the tournament (top 6 get paid), sitting in the BB, I look down at KK. The big stack in MP raises to 3x and gets a couple of callers. I reraise and she goes all in. It’s folded around to me and I insta-call (she had been playing a lot of marginal hands, bullying the table with her stack – as she should). We open our hands and she shows KTo. The perfect situation. I double up and will head to the final table with a monster stack. Flop comes down K-A-3 rainbow. A feeling of elation starts to run over me as I start calculating how much I could be up at the end of the tournament.
The turn shows a Jack. Relief washes over me, it’s all but done. Count up the chips and ship it.
And a Queen on the river.
Disbelieve.
Shock.
Anger.
Acceptance.
The table was gape-mouthed and the villain apologized. Runner-runner…freakin’ King-Ten.
That one hand should have been the red flag. I should have known it was going to be a bad weekend. But did that stop me, no. I’m a poker player. One bad hand isn’t going to stop me. Sadly, it should have.
Over the rest off the week, I did hit trips 4 times, but 3 of the 4 times I had the low in a set-over-set situation. I did manage to get it all in with 77 against a 66 on the bubble…and lost. In 20+ hours of play, I saw 1 hand better than 3-of-a-kind (it was a straight – I did miss out on a boat when I folded 8-2 UTG). But the best example of how I run badly, on the last day I was sitting at a 9 player cash game. I stayed for 6.5 orbits. In that time, I saw 2 jacks, 1 ace and no other paint. I got up, counted my losses and hung out with The Banker until it was time to go home.
Overall, it was fun. It was the relaxing recharge I needed. Did we go to the Saw-themed escape room, no. Did we any of the things we planned, also no. Would have been better had I won, yes, but this was money that I had earmarked for gambling. I was not expecting to come back with any of it, and I did not lose all of it so yes, I will be back. And maybe next time the Gods of Variance will smile on me instead of laughing.
From the Desk of the Wordsmith
